|
 A superpower is a state with the first rank in the international system and has the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale. It was a term applied to the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. Any retrospective application of the term to an earlier great power or global empire is anachronistic. The term Superpower in reference to a state is used to describe the topmost position in the Power Hierarchy, above Major power.
Origins
The term "superpower" was first used in this context in 1930, according to the Oxford English Dictionary, but did not become a primarily descriptive term for the United States and the Soviet Union until the immediate post-war years (in the 1920s the term was used to describe electrification).
The term in its current political meaning is relatively new and was coined in the book The Superpowers, written by W. T. R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor at the Columbia University in 1943. Fox used this word to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and Great Britain.
The Suez Crisis made it clear, however, that the British Empire, ravaged by the destruction of two world wars, could not compete on an equal political, military, or economic footing with the Soviet Union and the United States without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts, even while acting in concert with France and Israel.
As the majority of World War II was fought far from its national boundaries, the United States did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. During the war, the United States had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.
Following the war, nearly all of Europe had aligned either with the United States or the Soviet Union. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the United States and the Soviet Union were the dominant political and economic powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like. This was reflected in the NATO and Warsaw Pact military alliances. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world. A number of nations undertook various programs to attempt to secure their own independent "superpower" status, such as the development of nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom, France, and China, as a rite of passage for being a "world player."
The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two nations, or even only two blocs, has been seriously challenged by some scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two so-called superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues far more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower was applied to the United States as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term was coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s. The validity of classifying the United States as a hyperpower is controversial. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favour of a multipolar balance of power.
There have been attempts to stretch the term back in time in historical context. As such some considered as superpowers the Mongol Empire, Ancient Rome, and even the empire of Alexander of Macedon.
Criteria
The criteria of a superpower are not clearly defined and as a consequence they may differ between sources. The following criteria should therefore be interpreted as a non-exhaustive list of power factors that are generally associated with superpowers.
Current factors
Cultural
Strong cultural influence, having soft power. Cultural influence incorporates developed philosophic school and ideology.
Geographical It should have a wide land or sea area under its control. Territory allows a country to mine minerals and grow food, increasing its self-sufficiency. It is an important factor in nuclear and conventional land warfare as it allows possibilities such as retreat, regrouping and reorganisation as well as placing distant radars and missile silos - even a rich country with small territory is more vulnerable in a military sense.
Economic and financial Superior economic power is characterized by access to raw materials, volume and productivity of the domestic market, a leading position in world trade as well as global financial markets, innovation, and the ability to accumulate capital.
Demographic A superpower should have a large and educated populace and should have highly developed infrastructure and pronounced cultural and economic ability to shape the regions around them as well as the ones under direct control.
Military Pre-eminent military ability, characterized by relative invulnerability, ability to deter or cause great damage, and capacity to project unified military might globally, but especially the possession of a vast stockpile of nuclear weapons.
Space technology Human space exploration is often considered one of the key defining technological characteristics of the Cold War superpowers, as this ability was monopolized by them for half a century, and was a source of intense rivalry. China's launch of humans into space in 2003 is widely seen as a clear successful attempt to satisfy one of the historical criteria for superpower status.
Political or ideological A functioning political system that is capable of mobilising resources for world political goals and immense ideological influence.
Possible factors
Fossil fuel superpowers
Fossil fuels are increasingly scarce and are expected to deplete in this century. Having access to fossil fuels is therefore becoming increasingly important. Reliance on fossil fuels could also result in a multiplication of the value of fossil fuels such as oil. Resource rich nations like Russia could very well gain from this.
Technological superpowers It has been predicted by many members of the international community, including Dick Morris (former advisor to President Bill Clinton), that technological growth in the coming decades will result in manufacturing industry going the way of farming and losing its place in the economy. Such a situation would particularly damage the economy of emerging superpower China
- Robotics, particularly from Japan and the United States, will end the need for manufacturing employment. Workers in manufacturing industry would lose out to the more efficient forces of robotics.
- The services and information technology sector would increase in growth as a result of the technological revolution.
- These changes may result in new criteria for Superpower Status known as the ability to become a Knowledge or Scientific superpower.
- Globalization indicates that most technologies will be widespread in the future through internet and other global services.
The Cold War era The term 'superpower' was originally coined to describe the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the United States of America, which opposed each other militarily, politically, and economically during the Cold War.
The Soviet Union
The Soviet Union represented the ideology of Communism and led the Warsaw Pact, known as the Eastern Bloc in the West. The Soviet Union fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:
- Political - Strong system of totalitarian government. Apparent Communist ideals spread influence over the globe. Had permanent seat on the UN Security Council
- Geographic - Covered 22,000,000 square km, 11 time zones; was largest country in the world. Covered huge sea area, vast deposits of minerals and large farming areas across the Union.
- Cultural - Vast influence over neighbours, varied and rich history and culture. Wielded influence through socialist and communist governments and organizations around the world.
- Military - The largest army the world has ever seen. Sizeable air force, imposing navy. Had a huge nuclear arsenal. At the head of the Warsaw Pact.
- Space Technology - One of only two countries to participate in human space exploration and to build space stations in the 20th Century, with pre-eminence in robotic exploration and satellite technology.
- Economic - Was the largest centrally directed economy in the world. At one point, produced 20% of the world's industrial output
- Demographic - Had a population of 293 million and a labour force of 152 million.
The United States
The United States represented the ideology of capitalism and led NATO during the Cold War. The United States of America fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:
- Political - Strong and stable democratic federal republic, influence all over the globe. Strong companies allowed the US to exert further influence over capitalist nations. Permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Western Europe.
- Geographic - Third largest country in the world, with an area of approximately 9 million km squared. Vast resources of minerals, large farming industry.
- Cultural - Huge influence over most of continent, integrated culture with Western Europe. Companies sold American culture over the world. Freedom of speech attractive to many over the world.
- Military - Bases all over the world, massive stocks of nuclear weapons not only stationed on own soil, but also in Europe. Technologically advanced army. At the head of NATO.
- Space Technology - One of only two countries to participate in human space exploration and to build space stations in the 20th Century, with pre-eminence in robotic exploration and satellite technology.
- Economic - Largest economy in the world, citizens enjoy some of the highest standards of living in the world. Strong currency, the US dollar.
- Demographic - Population of approximately 280 million. Large, well educated labour force.
Power distribution after the Cold War
The post-Cold War world is considered a unipolar world, as the United States is the world's sole remaining superpower, with the largest economic and military capabilities. Russia, however, as the legal successor state to the Soviet Union, also retains certain aspects of a superpower (e.g. the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, the largest territory in the world with an abundance of strategic resources, and the capability to develop advanced military and space technologies).
Some analysts think the hegemonic stability theory explains the current evolution in international relations. Hegemonic states tend to overstretch their power. At the same moment new rivals will become gradually more powerful, eventually replacing or counterbalancing the weakened hegemony. This scenario could be happening at the moment, as high military spending could weaken the United States in the long term. Other - currently major - powers could possibly benefit from this decline, eventually overtaking the United States's leading position.
A possible signal that a multipolar world is emerging is the rising of China, India and the European Union, each with a great economic and political potential.
The United States as a superpower
Only the United States currently fulfills the six criteria of a superpower. Because of this, it may be called a hyperpower , although this is disputed .
Geographical factors
- The United States is the third largest country, after Russia and Canada, some 6.15% of the surface area on Earth.
Demographic factors
- It has a large, though relatively slowly-growing population of almost 300 million.
- It has a high Human Development Index, according to UN.PDF.
Political factors
- It is a stable Democracy.
- It is a key player in the United Nations and an permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (with veto power).
- It is a world political leader supported by other nations, especially the United Kingdom and Israel.
Economic and financial factors
- The United States is the world's largest national economy and has nearly 30% of the global market exchange rate GDP. It is characterized by moderate to high economic growth.
- The infrastructure of the United States is well-planned and highly developed. [citation needed]
- It is headquarters for many global corporations and financial institutions.
- The country is an agricultural and a commodity powerhouse PDF, although it is dependent on petroleum imports.
- Its capital markets are the most important and developed in the world .
- The nation holds a key role in many fields such as new materials, electronics and telecommunications, information technology, aerospace, energy, biotechnology, medicine, bioinformatics, chemical engineering, and software.
- It has a decisive influence on financial international bodies such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and the American dollar is the most important reserve and convertible currency in the world.
Military factors
- The USA spends more on its military than the next twelve countries combined. It has the second largest nuclear arsenal (after Russia) and combines some of the world's most technologically advanced weapons systems with the expeditionary capability to project military power to any point on the globe.
Space technology factor
- The United States continues to operate and develop advanced space transportation technologies, both manned and unmanned. It operates the Space Shuttle (currently grounded) and is planning the Crew Exploration Vehicle to explore the Moon and Mars. It is one of the two principal builders of the International Space Station. The United States remains the sole nation to have sent men to the moon and is currently planning new systems for future lunar missions under Project Constellation. It is currently the only nation to have successfully launched a civilian privately built and financed manned spaceship (SpaceShipOne). The commanding lead of the United States and Russia in this field lies many decades beyond other nations.
Cultural factors
- American culture is highly influential worldwide, especially throughout the English-speaking world (soft power).
- American colleges and universities are known for their excellence, attracting international students (opinion leaders in their respective countries) and facilitating cultural exchange.
Potential Superpowers It is possible that sooner or later another country will attain the power that the United States currently possesses. The following nations (China and India) and a supranational entity (the European Union) are referred to in many media sources as having the potential to become a second superpower.
China
The People's Republic of China is currently the world's fourth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates and the second largest economy in terms of real GDP (PPP) and is considered a rising superpower due to its large and stable population, its rapidly growing economy which has an annual growth rate of 9.2%, and its rapidly growing military spending and capabilities. China also possesses nuclear weapons, has military, political and economic power, and has sent humans into space. It is also one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council
European Union
The European Union contains former colonial powers and current world players United Kingdom, Germany, and France, along with many other countries in Europe. If considered as a full unit, the EU fulfils the criteria to be a superpower. It is argued however, that the European Union is too politically and culturally fragmented to be considered as a single unit, especially since two of the principal levers of power - foreign policy and defence - are exercised principally by member states. It has the largest economy in the world (If counted as a single bloc) but its annual growth rate however is only 1.7%.
India
The Republic of India is currently the world's tenth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates and the fourth largest economy in terms of real GDP (PPP) with an annual growth rate of 8.1%. It is considered to be a possible future superpower due to a few reasons like - a growing skilled workforce and one of the fastest growing economies (especially in the service sector and software industry). India possesses nuclear weapons and maintains the world's second largest military. In addition, India is a proven spacepower and is planning a mission to the moon. Recently US and India have signed a civilian nuclear deal - one that recognizes India as a responsible nuclear power and also provides a source of energy that India desperately needs for sustained growth. |
